Tuesday, October 24, 2006

QOTD: Are French goalies drafted higher?

So far there are 45 goalies who have won a game this season:

* 10 goalies from Quebec
* 14 from the rest of Canada
* 21 from the rest of the World

All 10 Quebec goalies were drafted in the first or second rounds (average position 20.1) while only 10 of the remaining 35 goaltenders from outside Quebec were drafted in the top 60 (5-1st rounders and 5-second rounders). The average draft position of the Canadian non-Quebec goalies is #150 and for all other goalies the average position is 132.

Quebec-born goalies:
1 Marc-Andre Fleury
4 Roberto Luongo
8 Pascal Leclaire
13 Jean-Sebastien Giguere
16 Martin Biron
20 Martin Brodeur
25 Marc Denis
26 Dan Cloutier
44 Mathieu Garon
44 Jose Theodore

Canadians born outside of Quebec:
25 Cam Ward
40 Alex Auld
52 Manny Fernandez
54 Chris Osgood
99 Ray Emery
122 Chris Mason
124 Marty Turco
135 Andrew Raycroft
161 Mike Smith
188 Manny Legace
275 Ed Belfour
275 Dwayne Roloson
275 Curtis Joseph
275 Curtis Sanford

American and European Goalies:
1 Rick DiPietro
2 Kari Lehtonen
19 Olaf Kolzig
29 Hannu Toivonen
44 Ilya Bryzgalov
53 Mike Dunham
63 Peter Budaj
90 Vesa Toskala
116 Miikka Kiprusoff
133 Jussi Markkanen
138 Ryan Miller
161 David Aebischer
168 Antero Niittymaki
199 Dominik Hasek
204 Nikolai Khabibulin
205 Henrik Lundqvist
214 Cristobal Huet
219 Evgeni Nabokov
226 Tomas Vokoun
232 Martin Gerber
275 Niklas Backstrom

* Undrafted goalies were given a draft position of #275.

Conclusions?

* French goalies are likely overscouted - it seems extremely hard if not impossible to find a "steal" in the late rounds that was born in Quebec.

* Goaltending is the one postion where you can often find stars in the later rounds, for example:
#116 Miikka Kiprusoff
#124 Marty Turco
#138 Ryan Miller
#199 Dominic Hasek
#204 Nikolai Khabibulin
#205 Henrik Lundqvist
#219 Evgeni Nabokov
#226 Tomas Vokoun

* Goalies from outside Quebec seem to be undervalued at the draft - 61% of the goalies drafted in the first round that are playing are from Quebec although French goalies make up only 22% of the total sample.

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